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Tas Energy News - November 2018 Issue

Hi Folks,
It's been another volatile year for our energy markets. The graph below, courtesy of our Quantitative Analytics partners "SavvyBI", shows next Calendar years Tasmanian Wholesale electricity pricing, which is back trading at record highs, of near 10c/kWh. (If you can't see the pictures below, you may need to select "View this email in your browser" above).

Fortunately Minister Barnett has extended the 2017 State Government Energy Rebate Scheme with an additional $10M for 2018/19, which is administered via your Retailer. If you're not sure if your rebate is for the correct amount, or whether your business qualifies for this Rebate, please feel free to call me on 03 6223 7253.


Hydro Tas Storage levels are at healthy 46%, which SavvyBI says is pretty much the 10 year average for this time of year.

Large Generation Certificates (LGC's) have softened recently and are currently trading at around $67/Cert on the Spot Market but the forward market tails off very quickly to less than $13/Cert for Calendar 2022, as shown below.

Basslink is back on following another outage between March and June and we've been mainly exporting to Vic over the past few weeks (shown in Black). 

Goanna are delighted to release our latest report for the Tasmanian Small Business Council (TSBC), an ECA funded and consumer focussed submission to TasNetworks on the Second High Voltage DC Interconnector between Vic and Tas. The investigation is known locally as "Project Marinus" a new 600 or 1,200MW link, which could potentially cost up to $2.7B. Both Wind Farm Developers and Pumped Hydro Storage proponents are salivating at the idea of a new 1,200MW link but,  "Consumers, especially those in Tasmania and Victoria, could bear significant risks from the construction of a second Bass Strait interconnector, especially if it operates as a regulated link".  So the key question remains, "Who pays" and we probably all know the answer to that.

Our TSBC Project Marinus Submission follows hot on the heels of our May 2018 TSBC Submission to the AER on TasNetworks $2.1B Transmission Revenue and Distribution Regulatory Proposal for 2019- 2024. Following the consultation process, the AER knocked back $938M of TasNetworks "Contingent Projects", including the second interconnector, on the basis that they did not contain appropriate triggers and asked TasNetworks to undertake additional consultations.  

The Natural Gas competitive tendering season has returned in full force, with Victorian spot gas prices averaging around $9/GJ over the past year, but by the time gas arrives in Tassie a few dollars has been added to that figure.

July 2018, Innes Willcox (Chief Executive of the Australian Industry Group) stated:  “The future of gas prices looks bleak for gas users: supply costs are high and exports have permanently transformed the market. New supply is essential to avert a return to the scarcity pricing of 2017, but gas users will likely have to economise, fuel switch, or leave Eastern Australia in search of cheaper gas.”


If energy costs are continuing to impact on your business profitability, perhaps it's time to upgrade to First Class Energy Cost Management. Our latest multi-site client to sign onto the BI immediately identified annual cost savings of over $160,000 from some very simple changes and are now reaping the benefits on their monthly account. Call us now on 6223 7253 for your in house demonstration of our market leading cloud based and mobile Energy Business Intelligence platform, SavvyBI.

Did you know more than twice as many people read our newsletter than we have Subscribers? If you're currently receiving a forwarded copy but would prefer to be the first to know, feel free to Subscribe Here.

On a personal note, 2018 has seen us painfully and profoundly reminded to hold our loved ones close, to let them know how we feel and to savour every second together.

Like many mums and dads with late teens, I hadn't left the country for 20 years, so I'm happy to say I got out and about a bit earlier this year. In February my son Matt and I, along with an old Primary School buddy of mine, explored the Rajasthan Desert in India, riding Royal Enfield 500cc Motorbikes with Nevermind Adventures. The people were warm and welcoming and their food was delightful, humbling us at even the most remote of desert road intersections. Transitioning the father son relationship to that of equals was a great milestone, as Matt returned home to take up his Electrical Apprenticeship with local firm BSH.


In August I headed West again, this time to join a crew of both old and new friends on Nyang Nyang Island in the Mentawai's near the Equator 135km's off the coast of Padang, West Sumatra, Indonesia. I enjoyed a couple of weeks surfing 3 times a day in just board shorts and a rashie in the warmest sea water I have ever experienced.

I'm happy to report that I still managed to muster enough enthusiasm to pull on my 4mm Wettie and Surf Cloudy Bay on Bruny Island last month, although I'll never forget the feeling of surfing next to those Palm Trees!


Until next time, our best wishes to you and yours. Tracy, myself and the Team look forward to helping you again soon, all you need to do is call us!

John Devereaux
Renewable Energy and Solar/Battery Business Case Validations, Energy Policy & Energy Consumer Advocacy.
0418 139 498
Russell Reid
Natural Gas & LPG Supply, Gas tenders & Gas Invoice checking.
0419 360 403
Sead Pasalic
High Voltage Asset Management, HV Conversions & New Commercial/Industrial Electricity Connections.
0414 258 241


Find out more
Want to know more about Goanna Energy services? Phone Marc White on 6223 7253 for more information or follow us on Twitter at https://twitter.com/MarcBWhite


Whilst Goanna Energy Consulting Pty Ltd has endeavored to ensure that the information contained within this newsletter is accurate, we do not make any warranties or representations in relation to the accuracy of the information contained herein.
 
This newsletter is intended as general advice only and is not intended to constitute personal financial product advice. It is has been prepared without taking into account the personal circumstances, financial needs or objectives of any one person or organisation. Accordingly, individuals or organisations who seek to rely on information contained within this newsletter should undertake their ow
n independent enquiries and seek legal or financial advice prior to doing so.

 
Disclosure: Tasmanian Energy Brokers Pty Ltd is an affiliated business of Goanna Energy Consulting Pty Ltd.

Copyright © 2018 Goanna Energy Consulting Pty Ltd, All rights reserved.


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