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Wednesday 11/02/16                                                        407-248-9647

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No Non Sense News
Today is Wednesday November 2 and it is 1pm.

Let’s talk first about the elephant in the room. Has anyone noticed we have an election next week? J All I can say is, Wow, can we get this over with already. When it comes to politics, I can say categorically, I am no expert. However, I can make a personal observation, and that is I have never in my lifetime seen anything like this. To sum up my take on the election, let me paraphrase, “When they go low, both sides go lower”.

Glad I got that out of the way. Now let’s take a look at what is happening in our markets. All major averages have shown weakness in the past week as we enter the final week leading up to the election. All major averages have fallen below their short and intermediate term trend lines but remain nicely above their long term trend lines. No predictions here, just the facts. Consequently, as a trend follower, the long term trend remains intact to the upside and therefore I remain optimistic.

There is no doubt that the market does not like uncertainty and this is the primary reason for the recent market volatility. We also have the Fed delicately trying to normalize interest rate policy. No doubt this is an intricate balancing act. Currently the market gives the odds of a November Fed Rate hike at around 19% but the odds of a December Fed Rate hike at around 69%.

All of this contributes to the market volatility. So as Financial stocks have benefited from the anticipated rate hikes, Housing and Real Estate stocks have suffered. Cash and short duration fixed income levels remain high. In fact, Roadrunner, the market’s biggest volatility trader is saying that there remains a great deal of pessimism in the market. “Still no sign of excessive leverage in the system”. Investor cash levels remain near levels seen after the 9/11 attack. “You need the market to be over-leveraged and wildly bullish for a real bear market.”  So the biggest Volatility Trader is not seeing an imminent drop that so many of the national pundits are predicting. This is why I like to stick to the facts and not make predictions.

In fact, according to FactSet: 74% of S&P 500 companies have beaten EPS estimates for Q3, above the 5 year average of 67%.

And on a fun note, Uber’s self-driving truck delivered 50,000 Beers. Beer may never be the same. 

Market Overview
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Nasdaq Composite Index

S&P 500 Index

Warm regards,

Edward A. McDonough MBA, CFP® | Principal
Independent Registered Investment Adviser

Custodians: TD Ameritrade Institutional and National Financial Services LLC | Fidelity Investments
Securities Offered Through Triad Advisors, Inc. | Member FINRA/SIPC

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Any information provided in this e-mail has been prepared from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Triad Advisors and is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision. Any information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation. Triad Advisors and its employees may own options, rights or warrants to purchase any of the securities mentioned in e-mail. This e-mail is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and may contain confidential and/or privileged material. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of, or taking of any action in reliance upon, this information by persons or entities other than the intended recipient is prohibited. 

Specific Investment Disclosures:
  • The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material.
  • Any opinions are those of Edward McDonough and not necessarily those of Triad Advisors.
  • Expressions of opinions are as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
  • Please note that international investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility.
  • Companies engaged in the communications and technology industries are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence.
  • Investing in the energy sector involves special risks, including the potential adverse effects of state and federal regulation and may not be suitable for all investors.
  • The DJIA is an unmanaged index of 30 widely held stocks, primarily industrials.
  • The NASDAQ composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
  • The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that's generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market.
  • The Global Dow index is an unmanaged index that is broad yet investable measure of the global stock market and targets 95% coverage of markets open to foreign investment.
  • The NYSE Composite index is an unmanaged index of all stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange.
  • The AMEX Market Value index is an unmanaged index of over 800 companies listed on the American Stock Exchange.
  • The Russell 2000 index is an unmanaged index of small cap securities which generally involve greater risks.
  • The Semiconductor index (SOX) is a price-weighted stock market index composed of 19 companies primarily involved in the design, distribution, manufacture, and sale of semiconductors.
  • The Gold Future index (COMEX) is subject to the special risks associated with investing in gold and other precious metals, including: the price of gold/precious metals may be subject to wide fluctuation: the market for gold/precious metals is relatively limited; the sources of gold/precious metals are concentrated in countries that have the potential for instability; and the market for gold/precious metals is unregulated.
  • U.S. Government Bonds and Treasury Bills (TYX) are guaranteed by the U.S. government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value.
  • Treasury Bills (TNX) are certificates reflecting short-term (under one year) obligations of the U.S. government.
  • Commodities are generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Commodities are volatile investments and should only form a small part of a diversified portfolio. There may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising.
  • Investments related to a specific sector, where companies engage in business related to a particular industry, are subject to fierce competition, the possibility of products and services being to rapid obsolescence and limited diversification. Investing in Real Estate and REITs have various risks, including possible lack of liquidity; devaluation based on adverse economic and regulatory changes and will fluctuate with the value of the underlying properties.
  • Please keep in mind that strategies mentioned may not be suitable for all investors.
  • Technical analysis is a method of evaluating securities by analyzing statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices and volumes. Technical analysis attempts to predict a future stock price or direction based on market trends. The assumption is that the market follows discernible patterns and if these patterns can be identified then a prediction can be made. The risk is that markets may not always follow patterns.

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